Projecting the Future Pediatric Subspecialty Workforce: Summary and Recommendations.

This article summarizes the findings of a Pediatrics supplement addressing the United States workforce for 15 pediatric subspecialties. It includes results from a microsimulation model projecting supply through 2040; growth is forecasted to be uneven across the subspecialties with worsening geographic maldistribution. Although each subspecialty has unique characteristics, commonalities include (1) the changing demographics and healthcare needs of children, including mental health; (2) poor outcomes for children experiencing adverse social drivers of health, including racism; and (3) dependence on other subspecialties. Common healthcare delivery challenges include (1) physician shortages for some subspecialties; (2) misalignment between locations of training programs and subspecialists and areas of projected child population growth; (3) tension between increasing subsubspecialization to address rare diseases and general subspecialty care; (4) the need to expand clinical reach through collaboration with other physicians and advanced practice providers; (5) the lack of parity between Medicare, which funds much of adult care, and Medicaid, which funds over half of pediatric subspecialty care; and (6) low compensation of pediatric subspecialists compared with adult subspecialists. Overall, subspecialists identified the lack of a central authority to monitor and inform child healthcare provided by pediatric subspecialists as a challenge. Future research on the pediatric subspecialty workforce and the children it serves will be necessary to ensure these children's needs are met. Together, these articles provide overarching and subspecialty-specific recommendations to improve training, recruitment, and retention of a diverse workforce, implement innovative models of care, drive policy changes, and advise future research.

Child Health and the Pediatric Hematology-Oncology Workforce: 2020-2040.

Pediatric hematology-oncology (PHO) is 1 of the oldest recognized pediatric subspecialities. PHO physicians care for infants, children, adolescents, and young adults with all types of cancer and nonmalignant blood conditions, in many cases temporarily assuming the role of a primary care physician because of the complexity and intensity of treatment. However, the number of clinically active PHO subspecialists needed to care for children in the United States remains unknown. Recent papers suggest a potential oversaturation of PHO physicians in some geographic areas. This article is part of a Pediatrics supplement focused on projecting the future supply of the pediatric subspecialty workforce. It draws on information available in the literature, data from the American Board of Pediatrics, and findings from a new microsimulation model estimating the future supply of pediatric subspecialists through 2040. The model predicts a workforce growth in PHO subspecialists of 66% by 2040. Alternative scenarios, including changes in clinical time and fellowship size, resulted in a difference in growth of ±18% from baseline. The model also forecasts significant geographic maldistribution. For example, the current workforce is concentrated in the Northeast Census region and the model predicts the New England Census division will have a 2.9-fold higher clinical workforce equivalent per 100 000 children aged 0 to 18 years than the Mountain Census division by 2040. These findings suggest potential opportunities to improve the PHO subspecialty workforce and the outcomes and experiences of its patient population through educational changes, practice initiatives, policy interventions, and dedicated research.

Child Health Needs and the Pediatric Endocrinology Workforce: 2020-2040.

The pediatric endocrinology (PE) workforce in the United States is struggling to sustain an adequate, let alone optimal, workforce capacity. This article, one of a series of articles in a supplement to Pediatrics, focuses on the pediatric subspecialty workforce and furthers previous evaluations of the US PE workforce to model the current and future clinical PE workforce and its geographic distribution. The article first discusses the children presenting to PE care teams, reviews the current state of the PE subspecialty workforce, and presents projected headcount and clinical workforce equivalents at the national, census region, and census division level on the basis of a subspecialty workforce supply model through 2040. It concludes by discussing the educational and training, clinical practice, policy, and future workforce research implications of the data presented. Data presented in this article are available from the American Board of Pediatrics, the National Resident Matching Program, and the subspecialty workforce supply model. Aging, part-time appointments, and unbalanced geographic distribution of providers diminish the PE workforce capacity. In addition, limited exposure, financial concerns, and lifestyle perceptions may impact trainees. Additional workforce challenges are the subspecialty's increasingly complex cases and breadth of conditions treated, reliance on international medical graduates to fill fellowship slots, and high relative proportion of research careers. The recent limitations on pediatric endocrinologists providing gender-affirming care may also impact the geographic distribution of the subspecialty's workforce. Deliberate actions need to be taken now to continue serving the needs of children.

Child Health and the US Pediatric Subspecialty Workforce: Planning for the Future.

This article opens a multi-article Pediatrics supplement that provides a rigorous analysis of the projected pediatric subspecialty workforce in the United States. Congenital variations, epigenetics, exposures, lifestyle, preventive care, and medical interventions from conception through young adulthood set the stage for health and wellbeing in adulthood. Although care provided by pediatric subspecialists is associated with better outcomes and lower costs compared with adult providers, the authors of recent articles in the lay and medical literature have questioned the capacity of pediatric subspecialists to meet children's health care needs. This article highlights that, despite numerous advances in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment, the last decade has witnessed increasing numbers of children with acute or chronic physical and mental health disorders, including medical complexity, obesity, type 2 diabetes, anxiety, depression, and suicidality, all of which are exacerbated by poverty, racism, and other social drivers of health. In this article, we then describe the variability in the demographics, practice characteristics, and geographic distribution of the 15 core pediatric subspecialties certified by the American Board of Pediatrics. We then discuss the rationale and approach to the development of a pediatric subspecialty workforce model that forecasts subspecialist supply from 2020 to 2040 for 14 subspecialties at the national and subnational levels (not including the newest subspecialty, pediatric hospital medicine), accounting for US Census Bureau child population projections. The model does not account for the unique physical and mental needs of individual children, nor does it address the increasingly precarious commitment to, and financing of, pediatric subspecialty care in the US health care system impacting market demand.

Child Health Needs and the Pediatric Nephrology Subspecialty Workforce: 2020-2040.

Pediatric nephrology is dedicated to caring for children with kidney disease, a unique blend of acute care and chronic longitudinal patient relationships. Though historically a small field, trainee interest has declined over the past 2 decades. This has led to growing alarm about the health of the pediatric nephrology workforce, although concerns have been hampered by a lack of available data to enable feasible projections. This article is part of a supplement that anticipates the future pediatric subspecialty workforce supply. It draws on existing literature, data from the American Board of Pediatrics, and findings from a model that estimates the future supply of pediatric subspecialists developed by the Carolina Health Workforce Research Center at the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill's Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research and Strategic Modeling Analytics & Planning Ltd. The workforce projections from 2020 to 2040 incorporate population growth, clinical effort, and geographic trends and model alternate scenarios adjusting for changes in trainee interest, clinical efforts, and workforce attrition. The baseline model predicts growth of clinical work equivalents by 26% by 2040, but further widening geographic disparities worsen the existing mismatch between supply, clinical need, and market demand. The worst-case scenario projects 13% growth by 2040 which, at best, maintains the status quo of an already strained workforce. The models do not account for many factors expected to heighten demand over the coming decades. Urgent reforms are necessary now. Proposed solutions require multipronged changes in education and training pathways, remuneration, clinical practice models, and government policy.

Child Health Needs and the Pediatric Rheumatology Workforce: 2020-2040.

The Pediatric Rheumatology (PRH) workforce supply in the United States does not meet the needs of children. Lack of timely access to PRH care is associated with poor outcomes for children with rheumatic diseases. This article is part of a Pediatrics supplement focused on anticipating the future pediatric subspecialty workforce supply. It draws on information in the literature, American Board of Pediatrics data, and findings from a model that estimates the future supply of pediatric subspecialists developed by the Sheps Center for Health Services Research at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Strategic Modeling and Analysis Ltd., and the American Board of Pediatrics Foundation. PRH has a smaller workforce per capita of children than most other pediatric subspecialties. The model demonstrates that the clinical workforce equivalent of pediatric rheumatologists in 2020 was only 0.27 per 100 000 children, with a predicted increase to 0.47 by 2040. Although the model predicts a 72% increase in providers, this number remains inadequate to provide sufficient care given the number of children with rheumatic diseases, especially in the South and West regions. The likely reasons for the workforce shortage are multifactorial, including lack of awareness of the field, low salaries compared with most other medical specialties, concerns about working solo or in small group practices, and increasing provider retirement. Novel interventions are needed to increase the workforce size. The American College of Rheumatology has recognized the dire consequences of this shortage and has developed a workforce solutions initiative to tackle these problems.

Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion, Child Health, and the Pediatric Subspecialty Workforce.

Using multiple metrics, the diversity of the pediatric population in the United States is increasing. However, recent data suggest significant disparities in both the prevalence and management of child health conditions cared for by pediatric subspecialists. These inequities occur across multiple dimensions of diversity, including race and ethnicity, country of origin, socioeconomic status, sex and gender, and disability. Research also suggests that attending to diversity, equity, and inclusion in the medical workforce may positively affect health outcomes. High-quality pediatric subspecialty care thus requires knowledge of these data, attention to the effects of social drivers, including racism and discrimination, on health and wellbeing, and interventions to improve pediatric health equity through educational, practice, policy, and research innovations. In this article, we review data on the diversity of the pediatric population and pediatric subspecialty workforce, suggest potential strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of current diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives in academic pediatrics, and provide recommendations across 4 domains: education and training, practice, policy, and future research. The ultimate goal of pediatrics is to improve health equity for all infants, children, adolescents, and young adults cared for in the United States by pediatric subspecialists.

Screening for Speech and Language Delay and Disorders in Children 5 Years or Younger: Evidence Report and Systematic Review for the US Preventive Services Task Force.

Importance: Children with speech and language difficulties are at risk for learning and behavioral problems. Objective: To review the evidence on screening for speech and language delay or disorders in children 5 years or younger to inform the US Preventive Services Task Force. Data Sources: PubMed/MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, PsycInfo, ERIC, Linguistic and Language Behavior Abstracts (ProQuest), and trial registries through January 17, 2023; surveillance through November 24, 2023. Study Selection: English-language studies of screening test accuracy, trials or cohort studies comparing screening vs no screening; randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of interventions. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Dual review of abstracts, full-text articles, study quality, and data extraction; results were narratively summarized. Main Outcomes and Measures: Screening test accuracy, speech and language outcomes, school performance, function, quality of life, and harms. Results: Thirty-eight studies in 41 articles were included (N = 9006). No study evaluated the direct benefits of screening vs no screening. Twenty-one studies (n = 7489) assessed the accuracy of 23 different screening tools that varied with regard to whether they were designed to be completed by parents vs trained examiners, and to screen for global (any) language problems vs specific skills (eg, expressive language). Three studies assessing parent-reported tools for expressive language skills found consistently high sensitivity (range, 88%-93%) and specificity (range, 88%-85%). The accuracy of other screening tools varied widely. Seventeen RCTs (n = 1517) evaluated interventions for speech and language delay or disorders, although none enrolled children identified by routine screening in primary care. Two RCTs evaluating relatively intensive parental group training interventions (11 sessions) found benefit for different measures of expressive language skills, and 1 evaluating a less intensive intervention (6 sessions) found no difference between groups for any outcome. Two RCTs (n = 76) evaluating the Lidcombe Program of Early Stuttering Intervention delivered by speech-language pathologists featuring parent training found a 2.3% to 3.0% lower proportion of syllables stuttered at 9 months compared with the control group when delivered in clinic and via telehealth, respectively. Evidence on other interventions was limited. No RCTs reported on the harms of interventions. Conclusions and Relevance: No studies directly assessed the benefits and harms of screening. Some parent-reported screening tools for expressive language skills had reasonable accuracy for detecting expressive language delay. Group parent training programs for speech delay that provided at least 11 parental training sessions improved expressive language skills, and a stuttering intervention delivered by speech-language pathologists reduced stuttering frequency.

Feeding, television, and sleep behaviors at one year of age in a diverse sample.

Background: Healthy lifestyle behaviors that can prevent adverse health outcomes, including obesity, are formed in early childhood. This study describes feeding, television, and sleep behaviors among one-year-old infants and examines differences by sociodemographic factors. Methods: Caregivers of one-year-olds presenting for well care at two clinics, control sites for the Greenlight Study, were queried about feeding, television time, and sleep. Adjusted associations between sociodemographic factors and behaviors were performed by modified Poisson (binary), multinomial logistic (multi-category), or linear (continuous) regression models. Results: Of 235 one-year-olds enrolled, 81% had Medicaid, and 45% were Hispanic, 36% non-Hispanic Black, 19% non-Hispanic White. Common behaviors included 20% exclusive bottle use, 32% put to bed with bottle, mean daily juice intake of 4.1 ± 4.6 ounces, and active television time 45 ± 73 min. In adjusted analyses compared to Hispanic caregivers, non-Hispanic Black caregivers were less likely to report exclusive bottle use (odds ratio: 0.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.03-0.39), reported 2.4 ounces more juice (95% CI 1.0-3.9), 124 min more passive television time (95% CI 60-188), and 37 min more active television time (95% CI 10-64). Increased caregiver education and higher income were associated with 0.4 (95% CI 0.13-0.66) and 0.3 (95% CI 0.06-0.55) more servings of fruits and vegetables per day, respectively. Conclusion: In a diverse sample of one-year-olds, caregivers reported few protective behaviors that reduce the risk for adverse health outcomes including obesity. Differences in behavior by race/ethnicity, income, and education can inform future interventions and policies. Future interventions should strive to create culturally effective messaging to address common adverse health behaviors.

TV Time, Especially During Meals, is Associated with Less Healthy Dietary Practices in Toddlers.

BACKGROUND: While several studies examine the relationship between screen time and dietary practices in children and teenagers, there is limited research in toddlers. This study evaluates the association between television (TV) exposure and dietary practices in two-year-old children. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional, secondary data analysis from the Greenlight Intervention Study. Toddlers' daily TV watching time, mealtime TV, and dietary practices were assessed by caregiver report at the 24-month well child visit. Separate regression models were used and adjusted for sociodemographic/household characteristics and clinic site. RESULTS: 532 toddlers were included (51% Latino; 30% non-Latino Black; 59% ≤$20,000 annual household income). Median daily TV watching time was 42 minutes [IQR: 25, 60]; 25% reported the TV was "usually on" during mealtimes. After adjustment, toddlers who watched more TV daily had higher odds of consuming sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB), fast food, and more junk food; those watching less TV had higher odds of consuming more fruits/vegetables. Those with the TV "usually on" during mealtimes were more likely to consume SSB [aOR 3.72 (95%CI 2.16-6.43)], fast food [aOR 2.83 (95%CI 1.54-5.20)], and more junk food [aOR 4.25 (95%CI 2.71-6.65)]. CONCLUSIONS: Among toddlers from primarily minoritized populations and of lower socioeconomic status, those who watched more TV daily and usually had the TV on during meals had significantly less healthy dietary practices, even after adjusting for known covariates. This study supports the current American Academy of Pediatrics screen time guidelines and underscores the importance of early counseling on general and mealtime TV.

Examining Full-Time Academic General Pediatric Faculty Compensation by Gender, Race, and Ethnicity: 2020-2021.

OBJECTIVE: In medicine, women have lower lifetime earnings than men. To our knowledge, an in-depth examination of academic general pediatric faculty compensation by gender, race, and ethnicity has not been conducted. We aimed to 1) explore full-time academic general pediatric faculty salary differences by race and ethnicity; 2) explore these differences among all full-time pediatric faculty. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study using data on median full-time academic general pediatric faculty compensation for the academic year of 2020-2021 from the Association of American Medical Colleges Medical School Faculty Salary Survey report. Pearson's chi-square tests were used to evaluate the association of faculty rank with gender, race, ethnicity, and degree. We used hierarchical generalize linear models with a log link and a gamma distribution to model to assess the association of median salary with faculty race/ethnicity, adjusting for degree, rank, and gender. RESULTS: Men academic general pediatric faculty consistently had higher median salaries than women faculty even after adjusting for degree, rank, race, and ethnicity. Underrepresented in medicine academic general pediatric faculty had a lower median salary when compared to White faculty, and this was similar when adjusted for degree, rank, race, and ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrated broad disparities in general academic pediatric compensation by both gender and race and ethnicity. Academic medical centers must identify, acknowledge, and address inequities in compensation models.

Early Sweet Tooth: Juice Introduction During Early Infancy is Related to Toddler Juice Intake.

OBJECTIVE: To assess if 100% fruit juice intake prior to 6 months is associated with juice and sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) intake at 24 months and whether this differs by sociodemographic factors. METHODS: We used longitudinal data from infants enrolled in the control (no obesity intervention) arm of Greenlight, a cluster randomized trial to prevent childhood obesity which included parent-reported child 100% fruit juice intake at all well child checks between 2 and 24 months. We studied the relationship between the age of juice introduction (before vs after 6 months) and juice and SSB intake at 24 months using negative binomial regression while controlling for baseline sociodemographic factors. RESULTS: We report results for 187 participants (43% Hispanic, 39% non-Hispanic Black), more than half (54%) of whom had reported 100% fruit juice intake before 6 months. Average 100% fruit juice intake at 24 months was greater than the recommended amount (of 4 oz) and was 8.2 oz and 5.3 oz for those who had and had not, respectively, been introduced to juice before 6 months. In adjusted models, early introduction of juice was associated with a 43% (95% confidence interval: 5%-96%) increase in juice intake at 24 months. CONCLUSIONS: 100% fruit juice intake exceeding recommended levels at 6 and 24 months in this diverse cohort was prevalent. Introducing 100% fruit juice prior to 6 months may put children at greater risk for more juice intake as they age. Further research is necessary to determine if early guidance can reduce juice intake.

Pursuing a Career in Pediatrics: Intersection of Educational Debt and Race/Ethnicity.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the associations among pediatric trainees' self-reported race/ethnicity, educational debt, and other factors for pursuing a pediatrics career. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional study using data from the American Board of Pediatrics In-training Examination Post-examination Survey years 2018-2020 of categorical pediatric interns. Independent variable of interest was race/ethnicity. Classifications used were White, Hispanic/Latinx, Black/African American, Asian, and other/multiracial. The primary dependent variable was educational debt; secondary dependent variables included the importance of personal, professional, and financial factors in selecting a pediatric career. Means with 95% CIs were computed to summarize scores regarding a factor's importance. Chi-square tests of homogeneity and one-way ANOVA F tests were used to compare proportions and means of dependent variables across levels of self-reported race/ethnicity. RESULTS: A total of 11 150 (91.5%) completed the survey. Of the final analytical sample (7 943), approximately 6.3% self-identified as Black/African American, 8.2% as Hispanic/Latinx, 22% as Asian, and 55% as White; 44% reported >$200 000 of debt. Overall, 33% of those identifying as Black/African American had >$300 000 in educational debt. The highest ranked career factor was interest in a specific disease/patient population. The importance of educational debt in career choices was highest among those identifying as Black/African American, followed by Asians and Hispanic/Latinx. Among all races/ethnicities, the importance of mentorship decreased with higher educational debt. CONCLUSION: Among individuals pursuing pediatrics, the intersection of race/ethnicity and debt may influence trainees' pursuit of pediatric careers. Educational debt negatively impacts the importance of mentorship.

Trends in the Diversity of Pediatric Faculty: 2000 to 2020.

OBJECTIVE: Academic medicine diversity is important for addressing health disparities and training the next generation. A recent study highlighted the lack of diversity among pediatric trainees over time. However, trends in US pediatric faculty diversity have not been clearly illuminated. The aim of this study is to evaluate pediatric faculty diversity trends and compare racial/ethnic representation between pediatric faculty and the US population. METHODS: Repeat cross-sectional study of the Association of American Medical Colleges Faculty Roster of pediatric faculty from 2000 to 2020. Trends in sex, race, ethnicity, and rank were compared with the Cochran-Armitage test. Data on faculty race/ethnicity were compared with the general and child population by using US Census Bureau data. RESULTS: Trends in underrepresented in medicine (URiM) faculty representation significantly increased at all ranks: professor (+3.5%, P < .0001), associate professor (+3.0%, P = .0001), and assistant professor (+2.5%, P = .0001). URiM male representation remained unchanged (P = .14), whereas significantly increased trends occurred in URiM female representation (+3.4%, P < .0001). African American/Black males significantly decreased representation at associate (-0.4%, P = .04) and assistant professor levels (-0.6%, P < .0001), and American Indian/Alaska Native males significantly decreased representation at the assistant professor rank (-0.1%, P < .0001). The percentage of URiM pediatric faculty representation was considerably lower compared with 2020 US overall and longitudinal child population representation. CONCLUSION: The stagnation of URiM male representation and lack of faculty diversity reflective of the US population may have a critical impact on the ability to recruit/retain a diverse pediatric workforce and promote equitable care.